You may have seen in the news recently that Iran tested a bunch of new missiles recently. In addition to having doctored some of the photographs of the test, there are now very public doubts that they launched as many missiles that they claimed to and whether any of the rockets actually contained any new technology.
From the Telegraph:
Analysis of Iranian television coverage has also indicated that one of the weapons actually remained on the ground but the video was doctored in an effort to cover up the failure.
Iran also issued misleading statements about the ranges and doctored videos to make the firings seem more numerous and fearsome than reality, The New York Times reported.
Coverage showing what appeared to be many missiles being fired was apparently just one device, filmed from different angles. “Deception was rampant,” said Charles Vick, an expert on the Iranian missile programme at Global Security, a prominent defence think tank.
Despite the deception, the Pentagon said it was taking the tests seriously, viewing them as an attempt further to destabilise the region.
“We don’t believe this exercise to have been an illusion,” said Geoff Morrell, a spokesman.
But he added: “They were not testing new technologies or capabilities, but rather firing off old equipment in an attempt to intimidate their neighbours and escalate tension in the region.”
Well there ya go.
Unfortunately the Telegraph completely botched the math in their last paragraph.
Last week’s missile tests sent oil prices soaring from $136 to $147 a barrel, delivering a windfall gain worth billions of dollars to Iran’s oil-based economy.
The windfall, I would have to presume is the $11 premium which showed up after the test. Since Iran exports about 2.5 million barrels a day, it would take them 36 days to receive a windfall of only a single billion dollars. It would be many months before they could receive several billions.
One might conclude that Iran will earn more from oil than they spent on the tests. If so, it sounds like a good investment on their part — probably not the best investment — but a good investment. However, if their display really does consist of a lot of fakery, that certainly does not make their defense services seem very credible: the test makes them seem less dangerous.
Therefore we must conclude that the test was not actually perpetrated by the Iranians. Instead the US clearly staged the whole thing both to help George Bush’s oil friends and to make a future invasion of Iran more likely and acceptable. It’s kind of like Spies Like Us. Good movie, by the way.
On side note, could the media try any harder to use some combination of the words “sky high” or “soaring” whenever they talk about oil or gas prices?
Watts Says:
>>>Therefore we must conclude that the test was not actually perpetrated by the Iranians. Instead the US clearly staged the whole thing both to help George Bush’s oil friends and to make a future invasion of Iran more likely and acceptable.